麦肯锡:2022年全球能源展望摘要版(英文版 28 页)

麦肯锡:2022年全球能源展望摘要版(英文版 28 页)


Global Energy Perspective 2022


Executive Summary

Key insights from McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2022

1

While governments and businesses are increasingly committed to steep decarbonization targets, energy markets face extreme volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and a rebound in energy demand 

The conflict in Ukraine, as well as other factors, have triggered sig-nificant peaks in energy prices as uncertainties around supply security and affordability are paramount. This comes at a time where markets are already tight following the COVID-19 rebound 

Throughout 2021, global energy de-mand and emissions increased by 5% compared to 2020, almost reaching pre-COVID-19 levels (~33 Gt ener-gy-related CO₂ equivalent)

In the context of COP26, a total of 64 countries (accounting for 89%  of global CO₂ emissions) have made net-zero pledges, while financial institutions and private sector enter-prises also continue to increase their decarbonization aspirations

2

Going forward, the energy mix is projected to shift toward power. By 2050, electricity and enabling hydrogen and synfuels could account for 50% of the energy mix

Electricity demand is projected to triple by 2050 as sectors electrify and hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels increase their market share due to decarbonization

Renewable generation is projected to reach 80–90% of the global energy mix by 2050 as the global build-out rates for solar and wind grow by a factor of five and eight respectively 

Hydrogen demand in new sectors could reach 350–600 mtpa in 2050 (compared to ~80 mtpa today); global demand for sustainable fuels is expected to mature, reaching 8–22% of all liquid fuels by 2050

3

The projected peak in demand 

for fossil fuels continues to move forward; demand for oil is projected to peak in the next five years

Peak oil demand is projected to occur between 2024 and 2027¹ driven largely by EV uptake—a development that is already underway. Coal demand peaked in 2013 and, after 

a temporary rebound in 2021, is projected to continue its downward trajectory

The conflict in Ukraine is leading 

to price spikes as the market and consumers balance supply security and affordability

Toward 2035, gas demand across all scenarios is projected to grow another 10–20% compared to today¹; after 2035, gas demand will likely be subject to larger uncertainties, driven especially by the interplay with hydrogen

Two to four¹ Gt of CO₂  will need 

to be captured by CCUS by 2050 

to decarbonize heavy industries where fossil fuels continue to play a significant role

4

Even if all countries with net-zero commitments deliver on their aspirations, global warming is projected to reach 1.7°C by 2100

All scenarios require substantial shifts to occur across the energy landscape. Even in the Current Trajectory scenario, significant investments will likely be required to kickstart new technologies

With current government poli-cies, additional commitments, and projected technology trends, global warming is projected to exceed 1.7°C, making a 1.5° pathway increas-ingly challenging

To keep the 1.5° Pathway in sight, the global energy system may need to accelerate its transformation signifi-cantly, shifting away from fossil fuels toward efficiency, electrification, and new fuels, quicker than even the announced net-zero commitments

5

Total investments across energy sectors are projected to grow by more than 4% per annum and are projected to be increasingly skewed towards non-fossil and decarbonization technologies, while returns remain uncertain

Annual investments in energy supply and production are expected to double by 2035 to reach $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion¹; almost all growth is expected to come from decarbonization technol-ogies and power, which will by 2050 exceed today’s total energy investments

EBIT in decarbonization technologies and power is expected to grow by 5% per annum, and could outpace the growth in underlying investments

Business models in a highly decarbon-ized system are expected to remain uncertain across sectors, and will likely rely on adjustments in market design (for example, capacity payments for flexible thermal power generation), subsidies, or other support mechanisms (for example, support for CCUS on top of CO₂ prices)

2022年全球能源展望

执行摘要

麦肯锡《2022 年全球能源展望》的主要见解

1

尽管政府和企业越来越致力于实现大幅脱碳目标,但由于地缘政治紧张局势和能源需求反弹,能源市场面临极端波动

由于供应安全和可负担性方面的不确定性至关重要,乌克兰的冲突以及其他因素引发了能源价格的显着高峰。这是在 COVID-19 反弹后市场已经吃紧的时候

与 2020 年相比,整个 2021 年,全球能源需求和排放量增加了 5%,几乎达到 COVID-19 之前的水平(约 33 Gt 能源相关二氧化碳当量)

在 COP26 的背景下,共有 64 个国家(占全球 CO₂ 排放量的 89%)做出了净零承诺,而金融机构和私营企业也不断提高其脱碳愿望

2

展望未来,能源结构预计将转向电力。到 2050 年,电力、氢能和合成燃料可能占能源结构的 50%

到 2050 年,电力需求预计将增加两倍,因为各行业实现电气化,氢和氢基燃料因脱碳而增加其市场份额

到 2050 年,随着全球太阳能和风能的建设率分别增长 5 倍和 8 倍,可再生能源预计将达到全球能源结构的 80-90%

到 2050 年,新行业的氢需求可能达到 350-600 吨/年(目前约为 80 吨/年);预计全球对可持续燃料的需求将趋于成熟,到 2050 年将达到所有液体燃料的 8-22%

3

预计需求高峰

化石燃料继续向前发展;石油需求预计将在未来五年内达到顶峰

预计石油需求峰值将在 2024 年至 2027 年之间出现¹,这主要是由电动汽车的普及推动的——这一发展已经在进行中。煤炭需求在 2013 年达到顶峰,之后

2021 年暂时反弹,预计将继续下降

乌克兰的冲突正在主导

随着市场和消费者平衡供应安全和负担能力,价格飙升

与今天相比,到 2035 年,所有情景的天然气需求预计将再增长 10-20%; 2035 年后,天然气需求可能会面临更大的不确定性,尤其是在与氢气相互作用的推动下

需要 2 到 4¹ Gt 的二氧化碳

到 2050 年被 CCUS 捕获

使化石燃料继续发挥重要作用的重工业脱碳

4

即使所有承诺净零排放的国家都实现了他们的愿望,预计到 2100 年全球变暖将达到 1.7°C

所有情景都需要在能源领域发生重大转变。即使在当前的轨迹情景中,也可能需要大量投资来启动新技术

在当前的政府政策、额外承诺和预计的技术趋势下,全球变暖预计将超过 1.7°C,使 1.5° 的路径变得越来越具有挑战性

为了让 1.5° 路径保持在视线之内,全球能源系统可能需要显着加快转型,从化石燃料转向效率、电气化和新燃料,甚至比宣布的净零排放承诺还要快

5

能源行业的总投资预计将以每年 4% 以上的速度增长,并且预计将越来越倾向于非化石和脱碳技术,而回报仍然不确定

到 2035 年,能源供应和生产的年度投资预计将翻一番,达到 1.5 万亿美元至 1.6 万亿美元¹;预计几乎所有的增长都来自脱碳技术和电力,到 2050 年将超过目前的能源投资总额

脱碳技术和电力的息税前利润预计将以每年 5% 的速度增长,并可能超过基础投资的增长速度

预计高度脱碳系统中的商业模式在各个行业仍存在不确定性,并且可能依赖于市场设计的调整(例如,灵活火力发电的产能支付)、补贴或其他支持机制(例如,支持CCUS 在 CO₂ 价格之上)


[报告关键词]:   能源  
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