2023年黄金市场展望( 英文 10页)

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 Gold Outlook 2023: The global economy at a crossroads 

The global economy is at an inflection point after being hit by various shocks over the past year. The biggest was induced by central banks as they stepped up their aggressive fight against inflation.  

Going forward, this interplay between inflation and central-bank intervention will be key in determining the outlook for 2023 and gold’s performance. 

Economic consensus calls for weaker global growth akin to a short, possibly localised recession; falling – yet elevated – inflation; and the end of rate hikes in most developed markets.1 In this environment which carries both headwinds and tailwinds for gold, our key take-aways are:  

•A mild recession and weaker earnings have historically been gold-positive (pp. 4 and 6)

•Further weakening of the dollar as inflation recedes could provide support for gold (p.4)

•Geopolitical flare-ups should continue to make gold a valuable tail risk hedge (p. 5)

•Chinese economic growth should improve next year, boosting consumer gold demand (p.5)

•Long-term bond yields are likely to remain high but at levels that have not hampered gold historically (p. 6)

•Pressure on commodities due to a slowing economy is likely to provide headwinds to gold in H1 (p.6)

On balance, this mixed set of influences implies a stable but positive performance for gold (Figure 1).2  

That said, there is an unusually high level of uncertainty surrounding consensus expectations for 2023. For example, central banks tightening more than is necessary could result in a more severe and widespread downturn. Equally, central banks abruptly reversing course – halting or reversing hikes before inflation is controlled – could leave the global economy teetering close to stagflation. Gold has historically responded positively to these environments (p.7).  

On the flipside, a less likely ‘soft landing’ that avoids recession could be detrimental to gold and benefit risk assets (p.7). 

2023 年黄金展望：全球经济处于十字路口

全球经济在经历了过去一年的各种冲击后，正处于拐点。 最大的一次是由中央银行引发的，因为它们加强了与通胀的积极斗争。

展望未来，通胀与央行干预之间的相互作用将成为决定 2023 年前景和黄金表现的关键。

经济共识呼吁全球增长放缓，类似于短暂的、可能是局部的衰退； 下降——但上升——通货膨胀； 以及大多数发达市场加息的结束。 1 在这种对黄金有利有弊的环境中，我们的主要收获是：

• 温和的经济衰退和疲软的收益历来对黄金有利（第 4 和 6 页）

• 随着通胀消退，美元进一步走弱可能为黄金提供支撑（第 4 页）

• 地缘政治的爆发应会继续使黄金成为有价值的尾部风险对冲工具（第 5 页）

• 明年中国经济增长应有所改善，从而提振黄金消费需求（第 5 页）

• 长期债券收益率可能保持高位，但处于历史上未阻碍黄金发展的水平（第 6 页）

• 经济放缓对大宗商品造成的压力可能会对上半年的黄金构成不利影响（第 6 页）

总的来说，这组混合影响意味着黄金稳定但积极的表现（图 1）。 2

也就是说，围绕 2023 年的共识预期存在异常高的不确定性。例如，中央银行过度紧缩可能导致更严重和更广泛的经济衰退。 同样，中央银行突然改变方向——在通胀得到控制之前停止或逆转加息——可能会使全球经济在滞胀附近摇摇欲坠。 黄金历来对这些环境做出积极反应（第 7 页）。

另一方面，不太可能避免衰退的“软着陆”可能不利于黄金和收益风险资产（第 7 页）。