BP世界能源展望 2024 (英文 55页)

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bp Energy Outlook 2024 edition

目录

引言

概述 12

两种情景：当前轨迹与净零排放 14

与IPCC路径的比较 16

从能源增量到能源替代 18

累计排放：当前轨迹与净零排放 20

延迟和无序情景 22

能源需求 24

初级能源增长 26

按燃料分类的初级能源 28

石油需求 30

公路交通 32

航空和航运 34

产品需求与炼油 36

石油供应 38

天然气需求 40

液化天然气进口 42

天然气生产 44

煤炭需求 46

现代生物能源 48

电力部门 50

电力需求 52

按燃料分类的电力生产 54

风能和太阳能 56

提升电力部门的韧性 58

低碳氢气 60

低碳氢气 62

区域低碳氢气需求 64

碳减排与去除 66

碳捕捉、利用与储存 68

推动因素 70

能源投资 72

对关键矿产的需求 74

加速能源转型需要什么？ 76

按部门分解 78

电力 80

工业 82

交通 84

建筑 86

附录 88

数据表 90

将情景排放与IPCC碳预算进行比较 92

从当前轨迹到净零排放 94

延迟净零排放和最快IPCC减碳路径的建模方法 96

气候变化的经济影响 98

投资方法论 100

碳排放定义与来源 102

其他数据定义与来源 104

Contents

Introduction

Overview 12

Two scenarios: Current Trajectory and Net Zero 14

Comparison with IPCC pathways 16

From energy addition to energy substitution 18

Cumulative emissions: Current Trajectory and Net Zero 20

Delayed and disorderly scenario 22

Energy demand 24

Growth of primary energy 26

Primary energy by fuel 28

Oil demand 30

Road transport 32

Aviation and marine 34

Product demand and refining 36

Oil supply 38

Natural gas demand 40

Imports of liquified natural gas 42

Natural gas production 44

Coal demand 46

Modern bioenergy 48

Power sector 50

Electricity demand 52

Electricity generation by fuel 54

Wind and solar 56

Increasing power sector resilience 58

Low carbon hydrogen 60

Low carbon hydrogen 62

Regional low carbon

hydrogen demand 64

Carbon mitigation and removals 66

Carbon capture, use and storage 68

Enablers 70

Energy investment 72

Demand for critical minerals 74

What does it take to accelerate the energy transition? 76

Decomposition by sector 78

Power 80

Industry 82

Transport 84

Buildings 86

Annex 88

Data tables 90

Comparing scenario emissions with IPCC carbon budgets 92

From Current Trajectory to Net Zero 94

Modelling approach for the Delayed Net Zero and fastest IPCC decarbonization pathways 96

Economic impact of climate change 98

Investment methodology 100

Carbon emissions definitions and sources 102

Other data definitions and sources 104