德勤：《全球经济展望（2013年第三季）》(54页)

Global Economic Outlook（ 3rd Quarter 2013）

 

全球经济在温和的步伐继续增长。欧洲仍陷入衰退，美国经济增长仍然欠佳，主要新兴市场面临增长放缓。与此同时，全球金融市场都面临着相当大的波动，由于美国货币政策的预期变化，日本一项新政策，以及在中国的银行系统的不稳定。事实上，亚洲一直处于前列在最新一季度的经济新闻。在中国金融系统中的故障和在日本的金融体系的波动已领先在最近几个月的头条新闻。

在这一版的“全球经济展望”中，我们考察全球经济面临的主要问题，并讨论了可能的结果。我们开始与我讨论关于中国的。我解释一下最近的银行体系结构，影子银行体系是如何如此迅速地增长，原因最近麻烦出现。我还讨论了有关当局的回应，并在未来一定会发生什么，以恢复经济增长和金融稳定。

在接下来的文章中，我将讨论日本的新经济政策，称为Abenomics，和金融市场的原因在6月变得相当波动。我还讨论了如何经济似乎表现更好的新政策之后。我也期待在日本的经济和必须满足的条件，从长远来看，以新政策成功的前景。

在下一篇文章中，帕特里夏·巴克利试图解释席伯南克试图解释他的政策意图。伯南克最近的评论货币政策未来可能的路径上设置了一个相当显着的一轮金融动荡。帕特里夏探讨货币政策，并有可能对美国经济前景的影响。她还讨论了财政政策的影响。

在他的评论欧元区的前景，亚历山大·伯尔施指出，欧洲金融市场和欧洲经济增长之间的性能差异。金融市场状况有所改善，在很大程度上是由于欧洲央行的政策。然而，经济依然深陷衰退。亚历山大说，欧洲的经济过于依赖出口，特别是对新兴市场，为了创造可持续增长，必须有其他的需求来源。

接下来，亚历山大侧重于长期被忽视的欧洲消费者和消费者将扮演的角色，在对欧元区经济前景。亚历山大建议，仍然步履蹒跚的欧洲消费者债务和继续进行去杠杆化。因此，它是不可能的，他们将在经济复苏中发挥了重要作用。相反，其他来源的增长，包括投资和出口，将是必需的。

 

在他的文章中对英国经济，伊恩·斯图尔特认为，英国可能会拐弯。他指出，消费者部门和企业部门都表现出意外强劲。伊恩指出，积极的货币政策提供了燃料消费的财富，消费，更好的信贷市场条件。另一方面，他说，经济继续面临的主要逆风从全球的弱点，从紧的财政政策，以及全球金融市场的波动。

在她的文章对印度，马宗达Rumki说的是，虽然印度的经济继续旧的挑战，新的挑战正在出现。最终的结果是，经济增长的前景并不好。其中的挑战是令人不安的高通货膨胀，财政赤字巨大，一个大的外部赤字，资本外逃，从而导致在美国由联邦储备行动。资本外逃导致货币贬值，通货膨胀加剧和收缩央行放宽货币政策的能力。

在下一篇文章中，Akrur巴鲁阿提供了一个讨论有关俄罗斯经济。他指出，俄罗斯经济的主要力量来自消费领域。增加工资和消费者愿意借刺激消费增长。然而，高通胀导致央行收紧贷款条件。此外，静音全球对商品的需求对经济增长产生不利影响。因此，前景仍然不明朗。

最后，NAVYA库马尔着眼于巴西的经济，这是挣扎着增长。由强到弱增长的快速转变肯定采取了收费方面的普遍不满。大规模示威反映了基础设施薄弱，腐败和效率低下的挫折。可悲的是，前景是受到通胀高企，海外需求疲软，动荡和干预阻碍了企业投资的公共政策。

THE global economy continues to grow at a modest pace. Europe remains in recession, US growth remains subpar, and the major emerging markets face slower growth. Meanwhile, global financial markets have faced considerable volatility, owing to prospective changes in US monetary policy, a new policy in Japan, and instability in China’s banking system. Indeed, Asia has been at the forefront of economic news in the latest quarter. Troubles in the Chinese financial system and volatility in Japan’s financial system have been leading the headlines in recent months.

In this edition of the Global Economic Outlook, we examine the major issues confronting the global economy and discuss the likely outcome. We begin with my discussion about China. I explain the recent structure of the banking system, how the shadow banking system grew so rapidly, and the reasons why troubles emerged recently. I also discuss the response of the authorities and what must happen in the future in order to restore growth and financial stability.

In the next article, I discuss Japan’s new economic policy, known as Abenomics, and the reasons why financial markets became quite volatile in June. I also discuss how the economy appears to be performing better in the aftermath of the new policy. I also look at the outlook for the Japanese economy and the conditions that must be met in the long run in order for the new policy to succeed.

In our next article, Patricia Buckley attempts to explain Ben Bernanke’s attempt to explain his policy intentions. Bernanke’s recent comments on the possible future path of monetary policy set off a rather notable round of financial volatility. Patricia examines the impact of monetary policy and the likely outlook for the US economy. She also discusses the impact of fiscal policy.

In his review of the Eurozone outlook, Alexander Boersch notes the difference in performance between European financial markets and European economic growth. Financial market health has improved, in large part due to ECB policy. Yet the economy remains mired in recession. Alexander says that Europe’s economy is too dependent on exports, especially to emerging markets, and must have other sources of demand in order to generate sustainable growth.

Next, Alexander focuses on the long-neglected European consumer and the role that consumers will play in the outlook for the Eurozone economy. Alexander suggests that the European consumer remains hobbled by debt and continues to engage in deleveraging. As such, it is unlikely that they will play a major role in economic recovery. Rather, other sources of growth, including investments and exports, will be required.

In his article on the British economy, Ian Stewart suggests that Britain may be turning the corner. He notes that the consumer sector and the corporate sector have both shown unexpected strength. Ian notes that an aggressive monetary policy has provided the fuel for consumer wealth, consumer spending, and better credit market conditions. On the other hand, he says that the economy continues to face substantial headwinds from global weakness, tight fiscal policy, and global financial market volatility.

In her article on India, Rumki Majumdar says that, while the old challenges to India’s economy continue, new challenges are emerging. The end result is that the outlook for growth is not good. Among the challenges are uncomfortably high inflation, a big budget deficit, a large external deficit, and capital flight, which resulted from actions by the Federal Reserve in the United States. Capital flight has contributed to currency depreciation, exacerbating inflation and constricting the ability of the central bank to ease policy.

In our next article, Akrur Barua provides a discussion about the Russian economy. He notes that the main strength of the Russian economy has come from the consumer sector. Increasing wages and consumer willingness to borrow have fueled spending growth. However, high inflation has led the central bank to tighten lending conditions. Moreover, muted global demand for commodities has had an adverse effect on growth. The outlook, therefore, remains uncertain.

Finally, Navya Kumar looks at the Brazilian economy, which is struggling to grow. The rapid shift from strong to weak growth has certainly taken a toll in terms of popular discontent. Mass demonstrations reflect frustration with poor infrastructure, corruption, and inefficiency. Sadly, the outlook is hampered by high inflation, weak overseas demand, and volatile and interventionist public policies that have hampered business investment.