麦肯锡:债务与(不多的)去杠杆化(英文 136页)

麦肯锡:债务与(不多的)去杠杆化(英文 136页)


 

Debt and (not much) deleveraging

Seven years after the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007. Global debt in these years has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt to GDP by 17 percentage points (Exhibit 1). That poses new risks to financial stability and may undermine global economic growth.

Exhibit 1

 

Since the Great Recession, global debt has increased by $57 trillion, outpacing world GDP growth.

A new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, Debt and (not much) deleveraging, examines the evolution of debt across 47 countries—22 advanced and 25 developing—and assesses the implications of higher leverage in the global economy and in specific sectors and countries. The analysis, which follows our July 2011 report Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences and our January 2012 reportDebt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth, focuses on the debt of the “real economy”: governments, nonfinancial corporations, and households. It finds that debt-to-GDP ratios have risen in all 22 advanced economies in the sample, by more than 50 percentage points in many cases (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2

 

The ratio of debt to GDP has increased in all advanced economies since 2007.

In our study, we pinpoint three areas of emerging risk: the rise of government debt, which in some countries has reached such high levels that new ways will be needed to reduce it; the continued rise in household debt—and housing prices—to new peaks in Northern Europe and some Asian countries; and the quadrupling of China’s debt, fueled by real estate and shadow banking, in just seven years.


Household debt is reaching new peaks. Only in the core crisis countries—Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States—have households deleveraged. In many others, household debt-to-income ratios have continued to rise. They exceed the peak levels in the crisis countries before 2008 in some cases, including such advanced economies as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as well as Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand. These countries want to avoid property-related debt crises like those of 2008. To manage high levels of household debt safely, they need more flexible mortgage contracts, clearer personal-bankruptcy rules, and tighter lending standards and macroprudential rules.Government debt is unsustainably high in some countries. Since 2007, government debt has grown by $25 trillion. It will continue to rise in many countries, given current economic fundamentals. Some of this debt, incurred with the encouragement of world leaders to finance bailouts and stimulus programs, stems from the crisis. Debt also rose as a result of the recession and the weak recovery. For six of the most highly indebted countries, starting the process of deleveraging would require implausibly large increases in real-GDP growth or extremely deep fiscal adjustments. To reduce government debt, countries may need to consider new approaches, such as more extensive asset sales, one-time taxes on wealth, and more efficient debt-restructuring programs.

China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China’s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.

 

These challenges need to be addressed. Yet if, as it appears, economies need ever-larger amounts of debt to grow, and deleveraging is rare and increasingly difficult, they may also need to learn to live more safely with high debt. That will require new approaches to manage and monitor it, to reduce the risk of crises, and to resolve private-sector defaults efficiently. Policy makers will need to consider more ways to reduce government debt, and it may be time to reevaluate how incentives in the tax system encourage the amassing of debt. When there are signs of credit bubbles, regulators can seek to cool markets with countercyclical measures, such as tighter loan-to-value rules and higher capital requirements for banks. Debt undoubtedly remains an essential tool for financing economic growth. But how it is created, used, monitored, and (when necessary) discharged still needs improvement.

[报告关键词]:   麦肯锡  

    非会员直接付款方式购买:

  • 非会员需付款 1 元,通过EMAIL或者QQ传给你

  • 支付宝支付购买微信支付
  • 会员点这里下载:


  • 注意:下载将扣除 1 积分,24小时内不重复扣点;VIP会员免费下载。 会员充值
  • 收取的仅为信息搜集整理、存储加工传递等服务费用!
  • 会员注册优惠:

    点击这里注册会员 ---注册即送5点,充100送50优惠

    想低至1元/篇? 选包月仅299元!

    关闭(X)

    支付宝付款购买

    订单号:

    购买资料:麦肯锡:债务与(不多的)去杠杆化(英文 136页)

    支付金额(元):

    请填写MAIL邮箱或者QQ号码:

    支付完成,短信至18121118831,可即刻处理

    关闭(X)

    淘宝购买 100元可以购150点(相当于150元) new>
    (任何问题,QQ(908976821)或者短信电话:18121118831联系 )

合作共赢,共创未来

需要宏观经济相关资料和报告?

每年为数千个企事业和个人提供专业化服务;量身定制你需要的宏观经济的资料和报告

相信我们!企业客户遍及全球,提供政府部门、生产制造企业、物流企业、快消品行业专业化咨询服务;个人客户可以提供各类经济管理资料、商业计划、PPT、MBA/EMBA论文指导等。

提交需求

15+年的经验,值得信赖

可以QQ联系我们:896161733;也可以电话:18121118831

**涉及个人信息严格保密,敬请放心

相关服务

创新服务

PPT设计制作

商务PPT制作

商业计划书是一份全方位的项目计划,它从企业内部的人员、制度、管理以及企业的产品、营销、市场等各个方面对即将展开的商业项目进行可行性分析(包含论文PPT)。

点击查看详细

互联网+网站制作

互联网+

企业网站和中大型B2B、B2C网站策划制作,满足创业型公司到一般集团公司企业形象、电子商务、电子支付和订单管理需求…

点击查看详细

物流供应链咨询

管理咨询

依托其信息资源优势和专业的研究咨询团队,结合多年积累的庞大数据库资源和在经济行业分析、战略规划和企业管理等领域积累的丰富经验,...

点击查看

论文资料服务

论文

提供论文资料查找,论文写作修改指导

点击查看详细
'); })();