IMF:世界经济展望(英文 302 页)

IMF:世界经济展望(英文 302 页)


WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CYCLICAL UPSWING, STRUCTURAL CHANGE

CONTENTS

Assumptions and Conventions x

Further Information xi

Data xii

Preface xiii

Foreword xiv

Executive Summary xvi

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1

Recent Developments and Prospects 1

The Forecast 12

Risks 21

Policy Priorities 24

Scenario Box 1: Impact of Tighter Global Financial Conditions 32

Box 1.1. Smartphones and Global Trade 34

Box 1.2. What Has Held Core Inflation Back in Advanced Economies? 37

Box 1.3. Recent Dynamics of Potential Growth 40

Box 1.4. Has Mismeasurement of the Digital Economy Affected Productivity Statistics? 44

Box 1.5. Macroeconomic Impact of Corporate Tax Policy Changes 46

Box 1.6. A Multidimensional Approach to Trade Policy Indicators 48

Box 1.7. Growth Outlook—Advanced Economies 51

Box 1.8. Growth Outlook—Emerging Market and Developing Economies 52

Box 1.9. Inflation Outlook—Regions and Countries 54

Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts 55

Box 1.SF.1. The Role of Metals in the Economics of Electric Vehicles 60

References 69

Chapter 2. Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Drivers and Prospects 71

Introduction 71

Patterns of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies 74

Understanding Trends in Participation Rates 80

Prospects for Labor Force Participation 92

Conclusions and Policy Implications 95

Box 2.1. Youth Labor Force Participation in Emerging Market and Developing Economies versus

Advanced Economies 97

Box 2.2. Permanently Displaced? Labor Force Participation in US States and Metropolitan Areas 100

Box 2.3. Still Attached? Labor Force Participation Trends in European Regions 103

Box 2.4. Storm Clouds Ahead? Migration and Labor Force Participation Rates 106

Annex 2.1. Data Sources and Country Coverage 110

Annex 2.2. Additional Stylized Facts 111

Annex 2.3. The Role of Aging and Cyclical Factors 113

Annex 2.4. The Role of Policies and Other Factors: Aggregate Cross-Country Analysis 114

Annex 2.5. The Role of Individual and Household Characteristics: Micro-Level Analysis 122

Annex 2.6. Prospects for Labor Force Participation: Cohort-Based Analysis 122

References 123

Chapter 3. Manufacturing Jobs: Implications for Productivity and Inequality 129

Introduction 129

Structural Transformation: Key Trends and Drivers 132

Growth and Development beyond Manufacturing 139

Implications for Income Inequality 147

Conclusions and Policy Implications 150

Box 3.1. The Changing Service Content of Manufactures 152

Box 3.2. The Rise of Services Trade 155

Box 3.3. Are Manufacturing Jobs Better Paid? Worker-Level Evidence from Brazil 157

Annex 3.1. Data Sources and Country Coverage 159

Annex 3.2. Value-Added Decomposition 160

Annex 3.3. Sectoral Productivity, Aggregate Growth, and Convergence 161

Annex 3.4. Manufacturing and Inequality 167

References 168

Chapter 4. Is Productivity Growth Shared in a Globalized Economy? 173

Introduction 173

Conceptual Framework 175

Measuring Innovation 176

The Innovation Landscape 177

Determinants of Knowledge Flows 180

The Impact on Innovation and Productivity 181

The Impact of Global Value Chains on Patenting: A Firm-Level Analysis 185

The Role of Greater International Competition 187

Conclusions and Policy Implications 190

Box 4.1. Patent Data and Concepts 191

Box 4.2. International Technology Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers 193

Box 4.3. The Role of Foreign Aid in Improving Productivity in Low-Income Developing Countries 195

Box 4.4. Relationship between Competition, Concentration, and Innovation 198

Annex 4.1. Data, Sample, and Variable Definition 199

Annex 4.2. Determinants of Knowledge Flows: Additional Results 201

Annex 4.3. Impact of Foreign Knowledge on Domestic Innovation and Productivity: Additional

Results for Panel Estimation of Long-Term Relationships 204

Annex 4.4. Methodology for Local Projection Method Estimation 208

Annex 4.5. Impact of Global Value Chains on Firm-Level Patenting: Methodology and Robustness 209

References 212

Statistical Appendix 215

Assumptions 215

What’s New 216

Data and Conventions 216

Country Notes 217

Classification of Countries 218

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 218

Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP,

Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2017 219

Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 220

Table C. European Union 220

Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 221

Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and

Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 222

Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 224

Table G. Key Data Documentation 225

Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 235

List of Tables 239

Output (Tables A1–A4) 240

Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 247

Financial Policies (Table A8) 252

Foreign Trade (Table A9) 253

Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 255

Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 262

Flow of Funds (Table A14) 266

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 269

World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 271

IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2018 281

Tables

Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 14

Annex Table 1.1.1. European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 62

Annex Table 1.1.2. Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 63

Annex Table 1.1.3. Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 64

Annex Table 1.1.4. Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP,

Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 65

Annex Table 1.1.5. Middle East, North African Economies, Afghanistan, and Pakistan:

Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 66

Annex Table 1.1.6. Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,

Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 67

Annex Table 1.1.7. Summary of World Real per Capita Output 68

Table 2.1. Drivers of Labor Force Participation Rates 85

Table 2.2.1. Drivers of Labor Force Participation Rates in US Metropolitan Areas 102

Table 2.3.1. Drivers of Labor Force Participation Rates in European Regions 105

Annex Table 2.1.1. Data Sources 110

Annex Table 2.1.2. Country Coverage 111

Annex Table 2.4.1. Drivers of Youth (Ages 15–24) Labor Force Participation Rates: Robustness 117

Annex Table 2.4.2. Drivers of Prime-Age Male (Ages 25–54) Labor Force Participation Rates: Robustness 118

Annex Table 2.4.3. Drivers of Prime-Age Female (Ages 25–54) Labor Force Participation Rates:

Robustness 119

Annex Table 2.4.4. Drivers of Older Workers’ (Ages 55 and over) Labor Force Participation Rates:

Robustness 120

Annex Table 2.4.5. Drivers of Aggregate Labor Force Participation Rates: Robustness 121

Annex Table 2.5.1. Determinants of Being in the Labor Force 123

Annex Table 3.1.1. Data Sources 159

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CYCLICAL UPSWING, STRUCTURAL CHANGE

vi International Monetary Fund | April 2018

Annex Table 3.1.2. Sample of Economies Included in the Analytical Exercises 159

Annex Table 3.1.3. Sectors, Individual Industries, and Abbreviations Used in Chapter 160

Annex Table 3.3.1. Estimation Results, Beta-Convergence—Extended Sample (9 Sectors) 164

Annex Table 3.3.2. Estimation Results, Beta-Convergence—Reduced Sample (26 Sectors) 165

Table 4.1. Impact of Foreign Knowledge on Domestic Innovation and Productivity 182

Table 4.2. Impact of Global Value Chain Participation on Average Firm Patenting and Employment 187

Annex Table 4.1.1. List of Variables, Variable Definitions, and Sources 199

Annex Table 4.1.2. List of Sectors in Estimation Samples 200

Annex Table 4.1.3. List of Countries in Estimation Samples 200

Annex Table 4.2.1. Gravity Model of Knowledge Diffusion: Baseline Results for Different Time Periods 202

Annex Table 4.2.2. Gravity Model of Knowledge Diffusion: Including Cross-Sectoral Pairs 203

Annex Table 4.3.1. Impact of Foreign Knowledge on Domestic Innovation: Robustness 205

Annex Table 4.3.2. Impact of Foreign Knowledge on Domestic Labor Productivity: Robustness 205

Annex Table 4.3.3. Impact of Competition on Innovation 207

Annex Table 4.5.1. Impact of Global Value Chain Participation on Firm-Level Innovation: Robustness 211

Annex Table 4.5.2. Relationship between Country-Year Fixed Effects and Selected Policy Variables 211

Online Tables

Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita

Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP

Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing

Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices

Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators

Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and General

Government Net Lending/Borrowing Excluding Social Security Schemes

Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances

Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

and Overall Fiscal Balance

Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing

Table B10. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates

Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates

Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and

Services

Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods

Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods

Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions

Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Summary of External Debt and Debt Service

Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity

Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt by Maturity

Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP

Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios

Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected

Economic Indicators

Figures

Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 2

Figure 1.2. Contributions to the Change in Real GDP Growth, 2016–17 2

Figure 1.3. Global Investment and Trade 3

Figure 1.4. Contributions to Trade Growth 4

Figure 1.5. Commodity and Oil Prices 4

Figure 1.6. Global Inflation 5

CONTENTS

Figure 1.7. Advanced Economies: Monetary and Financial Market Conditions 7

Figure 1.8. Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes, August 2017–March 2018 7

Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Economies: Equity Markets and Credit 8

Figure 1.10. Emerging Market Economies: Interest Rates 8

Figure 1.11. Emerging Market Economies: Capital Flows 9

Figure 1.12. Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses 10

Figure 1.13. GDP Growth, 1999–2023 11

Figure 1.14. Per Capita Real GDP Growth 12

Figure 1.15. Fiscal Indicators 13

Figure 1.16. Global Current Account Balance 18

Figure 1.17. Real Exchange Rates and Current Account Balances in Relation to Economic Fundamentals 19

Figure 1.18. Net International Investment Position 19

Figure 1.19. Growth for Creditors and Debtors 20

Figure 1.20. Geopolitical Risk Index 23

Figure 1.21. Risks to the Global Outlook 23

Figure 1.22. Recession and Deflation Risks 24

Scenario Figure 1. Inflation Surprise and Term Premium Shocks in the United States 32

Figure 1.1.1. Global Sales of Personal Computers and Smartphones 34

Figure 1.1.2. Global iPhone Sales 35

Figure 1.1.3. China: Smartphone Export Cycle 35

Figure 1.2.1. Advanced Economy Core Consumer Price Inflation 37

Figure 1.2.2. Advanced Economy Core Consumer Goods and Core Services Consumer Price Inflation 38

Figure 1.2.3. Cross-Country Distribution of Changes in Core Goods and Core Services Inflation,

2011–17 versus 2002–08 39

Figure 1.2.4. Changes in Sectoral Inflation, 2011–17 versus 2002–08 39

Figure 1.3.1. Different Measures of Growth 41

Figure 1.3.2. Production Function Decomposition: Selected Large Advanced Economies 41

Figure 1.3.3. Investment in Selected Advanced Economies 42

Figure 1.3.4. Total Factor Productivity Growth 42

Figure 1.4.1. Difference between ICT Price Indices and General Non-ICT Price Index, Selected

OECD Countries, 1994 = 1 44

Figure 1.5.1. Impact of a Temporary Increase in the Investment Expense Allowance and a Temporary

Decrease in the Corporate Income Tax Rate 47

Figure 1.6.1. Selected Trade Policy Indicators: Example with Group of Twenty Member Countries 49

Figure 1.6.2. Free Trade Normalization: Alternative Normalization 50

Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments 55

Figure 1.SF.2. Detrended IMF Crude Oil Index and Economic and Market Conditions 56

Figure 1.SF.1.1. One Hundred Years of Cobalt Mining 60

Figure 2.1. Demographic Transition: Recent Trends and Projections 72

Figure 2.2. Change in Labor Force Participation Rates, 2008–16 73

Figure 2.3. Labor Force Participation Rates by Gender and Age 75

Figure 2.4. Labor Participation and School Enrollment of the Young 76

Figure 2.5. Labor Force Participation Rates of Prime-Age Men and Women by Demographic

Characteristics, 2000 and 2016 77

Figure 2.6. Subgroups of the Inactive, 2000 and 2016 78

Figure 2.7. The Role of Exposure to Routinization 79

Figure 2.8. Average Annual Changes in Labor Force Participation Rates 80

Figure 2.9. Decomposition of Labor Market Shifts 81

Figure 2.10. Changes in Participation Rates, 2008–16 83

Figure 2.11. Drivers of Participation Rates: Policies 86

Figure 2.12. Drivers of Participation Rates: Additional Policies 87

International Monetary Fund | April 2018 vii

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CYCLICAL UPSWING, STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Figure 2.13. Changes in Participation Rates, Actual versus Predicted, 1995–2011 89

Figure 2.14. Average Contributions to Changes in Participation Rates, 1995–2011 89

Figure 2.15. Change in the Odds of Being Active 91

Figure 2.16. Policies and the Effect of Routine Exposure on Labor Force Participation 92

Figure 2.17. Age and Cohort Effects of Labor Force Participation 93

Figure 2.18. Projected Changes in Participation Rates under Alternative Scenarios 94

Figure 2.1.1. Labor Force Participation by Age Group 97

Figure 2.1.2. Median Secondary Enrollment by Geographic Region 98

Figure 2.1.3. Youth Labor Force Participation by Gender 98

Figure 2.1.4. Implied 10-Year Improvement in Country Gender Gaps for Youth 99

Figure 2.2.1. Labor Force Participation and Change in Labor Force Participation by State 100

Figure 2.2.2. Change in Labor Force Participation Rate by Metropolitan Area 101

Figure 2.2.3. Decomposition of Labor Market Changes in Metropolitan Areas 101

Figure 2.2.4. Routine and Offshoring Exposure by State 102

Figure 2.3.1. Change in Labor Force Participation by Region, 2000–16 103

Figure 2.3.2. Change in Labor Force Participation Rate by Region 104

Figure 2.3.3. Decomposition of Labor Market Changes 104

Figure 2.3.4. Initial Routine Exposure by Region, 2000 105

Figure 2.3.5. Initial Offshoring Exposure by Region, 2000 105

Figure 2.4.1. Contributions of Natural Population Growth and Net Migration to Total Population Growth 106

Figure 2.4.2. Projected Evolution of Labor Force Participation Rates 107

Figure 2.4.3. Labor Force Participation Rates of Prime-Age Natives and Migrants, 2000–16 108

Figure 2.4.4. Change in the Odds of Being Active 108

Annex Figure 2.2.1. Changes in Labor Force Participation Rates, 1985–2016 111

Annex Figure 2.2.2. Share of Households by Employment Composition, 2000–16 112

Annex Figure 2.2.3. Changes in Labor Force Participation Rates of Prime-Age Men and Women,

1985–2016 112

Annex Figure 2.2.4. Average Annual Changes in Labor Force Participation Rates 112

Annex Figure 2.2.5. Flows into Employment, Unemployment, and Inactivity 113

Figure 3.1. Share of Manufacturing in Aggregate Employment 130

Figure 3.2. Sectoral Employment Shares 130

Figure 3.3. Change in Manufacturing Employment Share and Inequality, 1980–2010 131

Figure 3.4. Share of Manufacturing in Aggregate Employment and Output 132

Figure 3.5. Estimated Trends in Manufacturing Employment and Output Shares, 1960–2015 133

Figure 3.6. Cross-Country Distribution of Estimated Trends in Manufacturing Shares, 1970–2015 134

Figure 3.7. Peak of Manufacturing Employment Share 134

Figure 3.8. Share of Manufacturing in Final Consumption versus Income per Capita, 1980–2011 135

Figure 3.9. Relative Price of Manufacturing, 1970–2015 136

Figure 3.10. Estimated Change in Manufacturing Shares and Relative Prices, 1960–2015 136

Figure 3.11. Manufacturing Gross Output and Final Expenditure on Manufacturing Goods, 1995–2011 138

Figure 3.12. Change in Services Employment Share, 1970–2015 139

Figure 3.13. Difference in Labor Productivity Growth between Manufacturing and Services

before and after 2000 141

Figure 3.14. Distribution of Labor Productivity Growth of Individual Industries 142

Figure 3.15. Sectoral Labor Productivity, 2005 142

Figure 3.16. Structural Transformation and Aggregate Labor Productivity Growth, 2000–10 144

Figure 3.17. Estimation Results, Beta-Convergence 145

Figure 3.18. Sigma-Convergence 146

Figure 3.19. Productivity Gap in 2005 146

Figure 3.20. Average Gross Wages in Industry and Services in the 2000s 148

Figure 3.21. Labor Income Inequality in the 2000s 148

viii International Monetary Fund | April 2018

CONTENTS

Figure 3.22. Contribution to Change in Overall Labor Income Inequality between the 1980s and 2000s 149

Figure 3.1.1. Nonmanufacturing Value-Added Content in Gross Manufacturing Output, 1995–2011 152

Figure 3.1.2. Services Value-Added Content in Gross Manufacturing Output, 1995 and 2011 153

Figure 3.1.3. Change in Services Value-Added Content in Manufacturing Gross Output, 1995–2011 153

Figure 3.1.4. Change in Services Nominal and Real Value-Added Content in Manufacturing

Gross Output, 1995–2009 154

Figure 3.2.1. Exports of Services 155

Figure 3.2.2. Increase in Service Trade, 1980–2014 155

Figure 3.2.3. Services Exports by Industry, 1990–2014 156

Figure 3.3.1. Sectoral Employment Shares and Wage Inequality 157

Figure 3.3.2. Wage Gap between Manufacturing and Services 157

Figure 3.3.3. Wages of Workers Switching to Manufacturing Jobs 158

Figure 3.3.4. Inequality in Manufacturing and Services 158

Annex Figure 3.3.1. Distribution of Total Factor Productivity Growth of Individual Industries 161

Annex Figure 3.3.2. Sectoral Labor Productivity Growth, 2000–10 162

Annex Figure 3.3.3. Skill Composition of Workers by Sector, 2000–07 162

Annex Figure 3.3.4. Sectoral Labor Productivity, 2010 163

Annex Figure 3.3.5. Sigma-Convergence 166

Figure 4.1. International Patent Families by Publication Year 174

Figure 4.2. Technology Diffusion 175

Figure 4.3. Patenting and Research and Development at the Frontier 177

Figure 4.4. Countries at the Technology Frontier 178

Figure 4.5. Slowing Patenting and Productivity 178

Figure 4.6. The Evolution of Cross-Patent Citations within and across Regions 179

Figure 4.7. Knowledge Diffusion across Barriers over Time 180

Figure 4.8. Contribution of Foreign Knowledge to Labor Productivity Growth 183

Figure 4.9. The Dynamics of Technology Diffusion 184

Figure 4.10. Patenting and Global Value Chain Participation 186

Figure 4.11. The Effects of Global Value Chain Participation and Policy Variables 188

Figure 4.12. International Competition and Global Concentration 189

Figure 4.13. The Effect of Competition on Innovation and Technology Diffusion 189

Figure 4.2.1. Innovation Intensity 193

Figure 4.2.2. Foreign Patents by Source Country, 2013 194

Figure 4.3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Net Foreign Direct Investment and Aid Inflows 195

Figure 4.3.2. Official Development Assistance Commitment by Sector 195

Figure 4.3.3. Aid Commitment to Energy Generation 196

Annex Figure 4.2.1. Diffusion of Knowledge from G5 with Expanded Emerging Market Economy

Sample 202

Annex Figure 4.2.2. Reduction of Knowledge Flow with Additional Barriers: Including

Cross-Sectoral Citations 203

Annex Figure 4.2.3. Reduction of Knowledge Flow with Additional Barriers: Unrestricted Cited Sample 204

Annex Figure 4.2.4. Reduction of Knowledge Flow with Additional Barriers: Excluding China

from Baseline 204

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