罗兰贝格： 特朗普第二任期的潜在经济政策影响 (英文 19 页)

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摘要 

随着 2024 年美国总统大选的临近，关于选举的潜在结果及其经济影响的猜测比比皆是。 随着唐纳德·特朗普即将获得共和党提名，人们的注意力转向了这位前总统可能连任的影响。 在本期《印度储备银行季刊》中，我们探讨了特朗普连任的可能结果，特别关注经济政策。

人们感兴趣的关键领域之一是财政政策，特朗普政府在第一任期内推行了以减税和放松管制为标志的议程。 如果唐纳德·特朗普获得连任，此类政策的延续可能会显着改变国家的经济格局。 我们还分析了《减少通货膨胀法案》的未来、延长《减税和就业法案》(TCJA) 的潜在影响、其对联邦财政可持续性的影响以及监管回滚。 在讨论贸易时，我们还将讨论全球方面的问题，但不会详细讨论特朗普第二任期的其他地缘政治影响。

此外，鉴于特朗普在第一个任期内对国际贸易关系采取的保护主义态度，贸易政策成为讨论的一个关键方面。 因此，我们将探讨他的贸易政策对国际贸易动态和更广泛的全球经济的影响。

Abstract 

As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, speculation abounds regarding the potential outcomes of the election and  their economic ramifications. With Donald Trump set to secure the Republican nomination, attention shifts to the implications  of a possible second term for the former president. In this  edition of RBI Quarterly, we explore possible outcomes of a  

Trump re-election, with a particular focus on economic policies.

One of the key areas of interest lies in fiscal policy, where the  Trump administration had pursued an agenda marked by tax cuts and deregulation during its first term. Should Donald Trump secure  a second term, the continuation of such policies could significantly shape the nation's economic landscape. We also analyze the future of the Inflation Reduction Act, potential implications of an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), their impact on federal fiscal sustainability as well as regulatory rollbacks. We will also address global aspects when it comes to discussing trade but won't go into detail on other geopolitical impacts of a second Trump term.

Additionally, trade policy emerges as a critical aspect of the discussion, given Trump's protectionist approach to international trade relations during his first term. Therefore, we will explore the implications of his trade policies on international trade dynamics and the broader global economy.