麦肯锡: 零售银行业的现状：数字化和人工智能时代中的利润和增长 (英文 22 页)

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在全球宏观经济环境仍存在不确定性的情况下，零售银行应在拥抱数字技术和新一代人工智能的同时，聚焦客户至上和利润保护的基本面。

执行摘要

全球零售银行正走出一段强势时期。在新冠疫情期间，各国政府刺激经济增长，银行受益于消费者储蓄增加和信贷风险降低。然后，从 2022 年开始，利率上升扩大了净息差，因为贷款利息收入的增长速度快于存款成本。因此，2023 年全球银行业的股本回报率 (ROE) 达到了自 2008 年全球金融危机爆发以来的最高点：根据麦肯锡全景报告，约为 12%，高于 2013 年至 2020 年的 10%。

展望未来，零售银行面临三大阻力：成本通胀、欺诈行为发生和复杂程度的显著升级以及利率的不确定性。这些力量将限制资产增长、压缩利润率并增加银行成本。与此同时，消费者预期的持续上升和金融科技行业虽然疲软但仍具有竞争力，这给这一组合增加了竞争压力。

然而，这些压力并非银行从未以某种形式面临过。为了应对这些压力，银行将专注于两个基本要务：加倍重视主要关系和保护利润率。我们认为，银行将结合传统手段（例如提高分支机构效率）和下一代能力（例如数字化、人工智能和生成式人工智能）来实现这些目标。

在存款成本增加且流动性成为主要制约因素（过去两年）的环境下，银行需要专注于与有价值的客户建立深厚而持久的关系。与银行有主要关系的客户不仅可以将大部分存款保留在银行，而且还愿意接受可增加银行费用收入的其他产品和服务。银行在费用方面也面临监管阻力；如果这种趋势持续下去，提高每个客户的价值将变得更加重要。

为了发展和深化客户关系，银行可以提供一系列激励措施，引入一对一的个性化体验，并改进其渠道分销策略。我们最近的研究表明，渠道格局正在发生变化。分支机构继续在客户获取和咨询方面发挥着重要作用，但移动设备如今已成为各个市场中越来越多消费者日常银行业务的门户。因此，银行需要设计其分销渠道，以移动为主导。

与此相关的是，银行继续在技术方面进行大量投资，尽管他们意识到这并不容易。银行仍在努力从技术投资中获得可观的收入或成本效益1。成功的机构将专注于通过有针对性的数字化和人工智能（包括新一代人工智能）投资来保护利润率，以改善定价、减少损失、控制运营成本和提高生产力。人工智能和新一代人工智能尤其将在下一代存款能力的发展中发挥重要作用。

最后，随着欺诈损失的增加，零售银行必须找到一种细致入微的方法，在不大幅减少收入的情况下控制和减少欺诈损失。

随着市场条件变得更具挑战性，竞争环境发生变化，银行需要修改战略并精准执行的时刻即将到来。领先的机构将制定以更深层次的客户关系和卓越的运营效率为基础的方针，并通过对数字化以及人工智能和通用人工智能的大力投资来实现。

Executive summary 

Retail banks around the globe are coming out of a period of strength. When governments stimulated economic growth during the COVID-19 years, banks benefited from increased consumer savings and reduced levels of credit risk. Then, starting in 2022, rising interest rates expanded net interest margins as interest income on loans grew faster than the cost of deposits. As a result, returns on equity (ROEs) for the broader global banking sector in 2023 reached their highest point since the 2008 onset of the global financial crisis: roughly 12 percent, according to McKinsey Panorama, up from 10 percent between 2013 and 2020.

Looking ahead, retail banks face three major headwinds: cost inflation, significant escalation of the occurrence and sophistication of fraud, and uncertainty about interest rates. These forces will limit asset growth, compress margins, and increase costs for banks. At the same time, the continuing rise of consumer expectations and a weakened but still competitive fintech sector are adding competitive pressure to the mix.

However, these forces are not something banks never previously faced in some form or another. To counter them, banks will focus on two fundamental imperatives: doubling down on primary relationships and protecting margins. In our view, banks will pursue these goals with a combination of traditional levers—for example, improving branch effectiveness—and next-generation capabilities such as digitization, AI, and generative AI (gen AI). 

In an environment in which the cost of deposits has increased and liquidity has become a key constraint (over the past two years), banks will need to focus on building deep and lasting relationships with valued customers. Customers with primary relationships to a bank not only keep most of their deposits there but also are open to additional products and services that boost banks’ fee income. Banks have also faced regulatory headwinds in terms of fees; if this trend continues, it will be even more important to increase the value of each customer. 

To develop and deepen customer relationships, banks can offer an array of incentives, introduce one-to-one personalized experiences, and refine their channel distribution strategies. Our recent research shows that the channel landscape is shifting. Branches continue to play a role in customer acquisition and advice, but mobile is now the gateway to everyday banking for a growing majority of consumers in various markets. Banks therefore need to design their distribution so it leads with mobile.

Relatedly, banks continue to invest deeply in technology, even as they realize it will not be easy. Banks are still struggling to realize significant revenue or cost benefits1 from technology investments. Successful institutions will focus on protecting margins through targeted investments in digitization and AI, including gen AI, to improve pricing, mitigate losses, control operating costs, and increase productivity. AI and gen AI in particular will be instrumental in the development of next-generation deposit capabilities. 

Finally, as fraud losses mount, retail banks must find a nuanced approach that contains and reduces fraud losses without drastic reductions in revenue.

As market conditions become more challenging and the competitive environment shifts, the moment is fast approaching when banks will need to revamp their strategies and execute with precision. Leading institutions will set a course rooted in the basics of deeper customer relationships and superior operating efficiency, enabled by strong investments in digitization and the use of AI and gen AI.